Theresa May is rapidly pushing Britain towards the Brexit danger zone

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-is-rapidly-pushing-britain-towards-the-brexit-danger-zone-2018-11


theresa may brexit deal 4
Theresa May
Getty

  • Senior UK government sources are very pessimistic about
    a Brexit deal being secured this week.
  • This means a November Brexit summit now looks very
    unlikely.
  • No-deal contingency plans will reportedly have to begin
    being put in place from Thursday.
  • The prospects of a disastrous Brexit scenario looks
    more likely than ever.

LONDON — “I wouldn’t go getting your hopes up.” That was the
verdict of one senior UK government official when asked whether a
Brexit deal is set to be agreed this week.

“It’s not impossible there will be a breakthrough,” the source
added unconvincingly. “But there isn’t one at the moment.”

After a long weekend of negotiations, which extended well into
the early hours of Monday morning, both sides seem little closer
to reaching an agreement. Cabinet, set to meet on Tuesday will
not have an agreement to ratify, just as they didn’t have one
last week, or the week before that.

And this means that unless something dramatic changes in the next
two days then Britain is hurtling rapidly towards the Brexit
danger-zone.

That means three things:

  1. The promised November EU summit to finalise a Brexit
    withdrawal deal will almost certainly now not happen and the deal
    will get pushed back until December.
  2.  This is just three months away from Brexit, which means
    a no-deal scenario — for a long time ruled out as a near
    impossibility in Westminster — will rapidly become the baseline
    scenario.
  3. It also means emergency plans to route shipping through
    alternative ports as Dover grinds to a halt, will have to
    commence (reportedly
    from Thursday
    ) meaning everything from the manufacturing
    sector to aviation, to finance becoming increasingly gripped by
    Brexit panic.

Even if a deal can be broken in the coming week, the difficulties
of getting that deal through parliament, after the resignation of
yet another Conservative minister on Friday, look greater than
ever.

Put simply, the route for May to get a deal that can pass through
her cabinet and parliament looks narrower than ever before and
that means the smart money should increasingly be placed on a
no-deal Brexit.

There is an assumption in politics that everything will
ultimately be alright in the end. The public, particularly in a
peaceful and prosperous country such as the United Kingdom,
assumes that politicians will knuckle down and do what has to be
done to prevent economic or political catastrophe.

But as plenty of other nations around the world have discovered
over the years, sometimes bad things happen to good countries.
Sometimes the clock runs out. Sometimes solutions cannot be
found.

There is still time for May to solve the Brexit conundrum. As one
senior government source has told BI: “If things do fall into
place, then they will fall quite quickly,”

However, the time for a Brexit deal to “fall into place” is
rapidly running out, and right now the prospects for an orderly
Brexit look worse than ever before.

Our Brexit Insider Facebook group is the best place for up-to-date news and analysis about Britain’s departure from the EU, direct from Business Insider’s political reporters. Join here.